The perfect puzzle of Jokic’s system! The Nuggets spend heavily to renew Braun s contract in advance, and the lineup will be stable for the next five years

Translator's Note: The original article was published on ESPN. The data in the article are as of the time of the original article's publication (October 20, local time). The dates and times involved are all local time.

According to reports, the Nuggets and guard Christian Braun have reached an early contract extension worth $125 million for five years.

Rating: Pass (the early renewal contract is rated as "passing" or "unsuccessful")

Shortly before the Hawks and Dyson Daniels reached an early renewal contract with the same average annual salary, the Nuggets and Braun finalized the contract, setting the market for the 3D wing player selected in the first round of 2022.

Like Daniels, Braun performed well in his first season as the main starter. At the age of 23, his scoring average more than doubled to a career-high 15.4 points. Braun has done an excellent job replacing the departed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in the starting lineup, and the Nuggets are worried about filling Braun's previously key backup role.

It’s worth considering how much of Braun’s success is due to his ideal partnership with three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. With his speed running down the wing in transition and aggressive cuts in the half-court, Braun shot 65% on two-pointers last season. In addition, Jokic's outstanding performance also made up for Braun's low three-point shot volume. Braun shot 40% from three-point range last season, but averaged only 2.8 attempts per game. That's a very low number for a starting wing.

According to court tracking data from GeniusIQ, 46.5% of Braun's shots last season came from Jokic's passes, which was the highest among all Nuggets players. But Braun isn’t particularly reliant on Jokic for scoring. According to data from GeniusIQ, Braun's effective field goal percentage after receiving a pass from Jokic was 61% (three-pointers are calculated as 1.5 goals here to reflect their added value), which is exactly the same as his effective field goal rate after receiving passes from other teammates.

The Nuggets introduced veterans Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. in the free agent market, but it remains to be seen whether they can better fill the vacancy left by Braun on the bench in the new season. So far, recent first-round picks Julian Strawser and Peyton Watson have failed to take that step, suggesting Braun isn't entirely a product of circumstance.

The good news for the Nuggets is that they don't need to worry about Jokic leaving. All five of the Nuggets' starters - including new player Cameron Johnson - are under contract through at least the 2026-27 season. Braun, Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray are all under contract until at least the 2028-29 season.

Braun's salary will increase from $4.9 million in the final year of his rookie contract as the No. 21 pick to a minimum starting salary of $21.6 million (assuming a maximum annual increase of 8%), which will bring the Nuggets' payroll close to the second luxury tax line.

The Nuggets may not be able to use the mid-level exception to the luxury tax next summer, depending on how they deal with backup center Jonas Valanciunas' $10 million non-guaranteed salary, which will force them to use minimum-salary contracts to complete the lineup.

Nevertheless, Braun's early contract extension is a victory for the Nuggets. The Nuggets' luxury tax situation would have made it easy for them to receive offers for Braun, matching those contracts would have pushed the team's salary total above the second luxury tax line, and given their lack of tradeable draft picks and salary flexibility, the Nuggets would have a hard time finding a replacement for him.

The Nuggets should be thankful that Braun's contract term is one year longer than Daniels'. Braun won't need a new contract until 2031, when he will be 30 years old.

Author: Kevin Pelton

Translator: GWayNe