The unluckiest player in the NBA?没有冠军的保罗仍是史上最伟大的赢家之一

Translator's Note: This article was originally published by CBS and the author is Sam Quinn. The data in the article are as of the time of publication of the original article (November 23, local time). The opinions in the article have nothing to do with the translator and the platform.

Chris Paul will retire with the regret of not having a championship ring - but his career proves that he is one of the greatest winners in the NBA. The future Hall of Famer's place in history will be defined by losses beyond his control.

There is a considerable gap between the perception and reality of "critical" basketball. We tend to think of it as something almost innate: some players and teams have clutch instinct, while others don't. But the truth is more complicated than that. In fact, the sample size for clutch performance is so small that it looks almost random. Last season's Bulls had a higher clutch net rating than last year's Celtics. The Dallas Mavericks, who missed the playoffs in the 2022-23 season, achieved a record of 26 wins and 29 losses in key games; while the Mavericks team, which has not changed much in its lineup and entered the NBA Finals in the 2023-24 season, has a record of 23 wins and 9 losses in key games. Clutch performance may not be completely random, but it's rarely consistent.

Unless, for the past few decades, your team has had Chris Paul. In the 2016-17 season, the Rockets ranked 18th in the league in key ball net efficiency; then they acquired Chris Paul and climbed to first in the league in the 2017-18 season, scoring 27.1 points more than their opponents per 100 possessions. In the 2018-19 season, the Thunder ranked 11th in critical ball net efficiency; after acquiring Paul, they reached the top of the league in the 2019-20 season, outscoring their opponents by 24.4 points per 100 possessions during critical ball periods. In the 2019-20 season, the Suns ranked 21st in the league in key ball net efficiency. If you think there is a pattern here, you may be disappointed - it took Paul two seasons to lead the Suns to the league's best key ball net efficiency, reaching an astonishing +33.4 in the 2021-22 season. In his first season in Phoenix, he just made it to the NBA Finals.

In the period from his first All-Star selection in 2008 to his last All-Star selection in 2022, Paul's winning rate in key ball games defined by the NBA reached 65%. During the same period, LeBron James' winning rate was 64.2%; applying the same statistical range (first All-Star to last All-Star) to contemporary players such as Kevin Durant (59.6%) and Stephen Curry (60.5%), Paul still tops the list. In the 21st century NBA, the surest way to win a tight regular season is to make Paul your teammate.

However, if the performance of the regular season cannot be replicated in the playoffs, then it will be difficult to gain real recognition for the achievements of the regular season. Paul never won a championship. Unless the Clippers pull off a stunning turnaround or a trade comes along that we didn't expect, he will retire without a championship ring. Even if he can win the championship this season, its significance can hardly be called significant. Paul has been in and out of the Clippers' rotation, and the superstar he once was is long gone. He's destined to join that list of shame - the greatest players of all time who never won a championship.

And his addition makes this list even more regretful. Unlike his former teammate and current teammate James Harden, he has a terrible record of being invisible for a long time in the elimination game; his fighting spirit and physical fitness have never been as up and down as Charles Barkley. There are no obvious flaws in him, no shortcomings that would make him miss out on glory. Paul excelled in almost every aspect. As a guard whose official height is 6 feet (approximately 1.83 meters) - but may actually be an inch or two shorter, his All-Defensive Team selections are tied for seventh in NBA history; he once came close to achieving a 50-40-90 shooting season (that is, 50% field goal percentage, 40% three-point shooting percentage, and 90% free throw percentage). He was a basketball phenom who was so aggressive in finding an advantage in the game that he once persuaded a referee to call a technical foul for an opponent's jersey being untucked. He is the definition of a "winner" who has never actually won a championship.

Of course, he also bears some responsibility for this. For example, the collapse against the Thunder in the 2014 playoffs was a complete disaster. At that time, Paul committed two turnovers in 17 seconds and fouled Westbrook on a three-pointer with a two-point lead, which ultimately led to the most painful loss of his playoff career. But James has the regret of the 2011 Finals, and Kobe Bryant has the disappointment of 2004. Every legendary star inevitably has stains on his resume, and they can often erase them with victory. But Paul's rise to stardom never really went smoothly, usually for reasons beyond his control.

How many stars have encountered situations where the league vetoed trades? If David Stern had not stopped his trade to the Lakers, he might have already won at least one championship ring wearing the purple and gold jersey - after all, most stars who play for the Lakers can realize their dreams. This ring may be obtained together with Kobe at the end of his career, or it may come from the team's subsequent new lineup. But things backfired and he was traded to the cursed Clippers. Griffin has been plagued by injuries all year round, and Donald Sterling was forced to sell the team due to scandal.

Even so, he still has an excellent chance to win the championship in Los Angeles in 2015. He had just led the team to defeat the defending champion San Antonio Spurs. In a life-and-death battle in the second round of the elimination round, he led the Rockets by 19 points at the end of the third quarter. However, Josh Smith and Corey Brewer produced some of the best shooting of their careers in the fourth quarter to turn the game around and ultimately win the series.. The Warriors were not invincible at that time. The Memphis Grizzlies had just dragged them into six games, and the Cleveland Cavaliers, who were missing Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, did the same thing later. But Paul, who was suffering from injuries, failed to prevent the most notorious misfortune in playoff history.

Paul has had many star teammates, but he has never had a combination like Curry and Durant - an undisputed, nearly unstoppable favorite to win the championship. The reason why it is said to be nearly unstoppable is because Paul once worked with Harden to almost overthrow them. In the 2018 Western Conference Finals, the Rockets led the Warriors 3-2 after five games. But Paul strained his hamstring late in Game 5, and the Warriors easily won Game 6 at home. Then, another desperate shooting fluctuation came - in the seventh game at home, the Rockets had an embarrassing situation of missing 27 consecutive three-pointers, and ultimately lost with regret. A year later, Paul's relationship with Harden soured and he was traded to the Thunder.

No one will question what happened next, and no one should question it. A year later, Presti traded Paul to the Phoenix Suns. But people can't help but wonder, would the situation have been different if the Thunder had not chosen to mess up at that time? How good can Paul and Alexander be in the next few years? Can Presti use the massive draft picks in his hands to build a championship team around Paul? We'll never get the answer. Paul came to the Suns and was closer than ever to a championship. However, Antetokounmpo once again ended his championship dream. In 2022, the team collapsed in the tiebreaker against the Dallas Mavericks due to internal conflicts. Paul's window to win the championship seemed to be completely closed. After becoming a free agent in 2024, he had the opportunity to restart the road to the championship, but he chose to join the Spurs to seek a substantive role rather than serve as a substitute on a stronger team. "What I desire most is the opportunity to play, contribute, and play to my heart's content." Paul said at the time.

He does it better than almost any player who has ever stepped onto the field. After all, there's a reason he's called the "God of Control." But as we mentioned at the beginning, there is a lot of randomness inherent in clutch performance, and winning a championship is essentially about winning at critical moments. Paul has tried his best to create a chance for himself to win the championship, but even if he is stronger, he cannot control all variables. He ended up becoming one of the unluckiest players in modern NBA history. If he could repeat his career 100 times, he would be the champion 90 times. Change even one factor — injuries, shooting fluctuations, team circumstances — and he can hoist a championship trophy at some point.

But the reality is that he joins that regrettable list of the greatest players in history who never had a chance to win a championship.